Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 186.714310 228.504761 281.048837 353.381872 452.707172 5.880054e+02 7.931603e+02
2025-02-09 141.825043 190.257651 259.632858 371.163929 556.526320 8.752626e+02 1.529031e+03
2025-02-16 116.486073 166.062423 243.693641 383.427175 653.297366 1.221385e+03 2.796920e+03
2025-02-23 99.581295 148.507361 230.477509 391.897186 745.916725 1.644198e+03 5.078858e+03
2025-03-02 85.070979 130.975917 211.718073 381.753471 793.819185 2.018814e+03 8.433143e+03
2025-03-09 74.195228 117.215679 195.965089 371.468316 835.849135 2.438565e+03 1.426943e+04
2025-03-16 65.169383 105.041504 180.354163 356.027941 856.217473 2.827153e+03 2.360420e+04
2025-03-23 62.683682 104.213383 186.604080 393.406910 1059.374796 4.400924e+03 8.596993e+04
2025-03-30 57.897941 98.224631 180.871259 398.935028 1165.647922 5.816272e+03 3.026993e+05
2025-04-06 54.657915 94.726809 179.738363 416.600095 1336.932583 8.412231e+03 3.963572e+06
2025-04-13 50.257273 88.278876 170.743503 408.782152 1398.117882 1.045676e+04 1.503278e+09
2025-04-20 49.190962 88.515596 177.281603 450.888768 1746.581356 1.913026e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 47.560797 87.519854 181.169040 488.764043 2154.210733 3.792948e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 45.645447 85.650062 182.562428 519.747227 2596.101473 8.077461e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 43.459218 82.866380 180.993768 539.557961 3018.054675 1.807519e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 41.273304 79.794550 178.039131 553.010938 3440.059135 4.631883e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 38.433244 74.862707 168.992556 537.026681 3551.815390 8.779057e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 35.891767 70.381646 160.548662 520.875385 3647.673426 1.848383e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 33.395960 65.771046 151.053290 496.756962 3614.243247 3.358379e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 33.218519 66.749499 158.270279 555.414884 4899.160162 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.836020 64.598581 155.591865 564.167178 5518.845485 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.950116 63.600629 156.367768 592.265104 6701.941507 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.348702 60.622444 150.311869 579.805653 6992.152829 NaN NaN